18/EP.

40 min

Gartner Hype Cycles and Predicting Future Technologies

This week we are diving into one of our favorite things, Gartner Hype Cycles and predicting future technologies. This conversation is inspired by an article by Michael Mullany titled, “8 Lessons from 20 Years of Hype Cycles.” Tune in as we crank through these arguments and share what we think he got right.

Too Long Didn’t Listen (TLDL)

“You can study logistics, you can study supply chains, you can study device penetration. But what you can’t really understand is the future behavior of humans because it is too infinitely complex.”

Gartner Hype Cycles are used as a tool and industry standard on how to predict future technologies and the process of them becoming mainstream. Listed here are the 8 lessons about Hype Cycles that we discuss in this episode from the article by Michael Mullany.

1. We are terrible about making predictions. Especially about the future.
2. An alarming number of technology trends are flashes in the pan.
3. Lots of technologies just die. Period.
4. The technical insight is often correct, but the implementation isn’t there
5. We’ve been working on a few core technical problems for decades
6. Some technologies keep receding into the future
7. Lots of technologies make progress when no-one is looking
8. Many major technologies flew under the Hype Cycle radar

Gartner Hype Cycles Research Methodology
“8 Lessons from 20 Years of Hype Cycles” by Michael Mullany

This Week’s Featured Cocktail:The Mezcal Paloma

INGREDIENTS
1/4 cup fine sea salt
1 teaspoon ground chile de árbol
Small grapefruit wedge (for glass)
2 ounces mezcal or silver tequila (such as Patrón)
1 ounce fresh grapefruit juice
6 ounces grapefruit soda
Grapefruit twist (for serving)

Featured Speakers:

Brandon Gredler

James Lanyon

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